Investment opportunity analysis: Robots and high-end machine tools are at the forefront​

 After a period of silence, recent IPO stocks have begun to gradually rise from their lows. The disk shows that as the hardest-hit area in this round of adjustment, there are many new stocks whose share prices have been cut in half; and after entering 2016, there are still many times when the stock prices of new stocks have suffered heavy losses. According to industry insiders, the sub-IPO camp is seriously oversold. Recently, hot money has appeared in sub-IPO stocks from time to time. Especially when blue chips protected the market yesterday, sub-IPO stocks are ready to move again. Under the current fundamental background, this wave of oversold The downtrend is not likely to end easily. From the perspective of opportunities, it is recommended that investors grasp the oversold rebound of sub-IPO stocks from two aspects. First, pay attention to the high sales of sub-IPO stocks, and secondly, look for investment opportunities in high-growth sub-IPO stocks.
  
  Industrial Robots
  
  With the increase in labor costs and the advancement of technology, robots that once could only appear in science fiction blockbusters are gradually becoming a reality. In recent years, my country's industrial robot industry has developed rapidly and has become the most important market for industrial robots in the world. In order to promote the healthy and rapid development of the robot industry, relevant departments continue to increase support for the robot industry. "Made in China 2025" has opened up a vast space for growth for the robot industry.
  
  According to the latest forecast of the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), the number of global industrial robot sales may nearly double to 400,000 in 2018, and China will become a greater driving force.
  
  The sales of industrial robots in my country jumped from 7,879 units in 2008 to 56,000 units in 2014, achieving exponential growth and accounting for a quarter of the world's total robots.
  
  The development prospects of industrial robots have attracted many cross-border investment giants. For example, Gree Electric Appliances and Midea Group. Gree Electric has invested 5 billion yuan in building the "Gree Intelligent Equipment Manufacturing Industrial Park" in Caidian, Wuhan. The industrial park is expected to be put into operation in 2018, when it will provide intelligent automated industrial robots capable of producing precision equipment to the world.
  
  Midea Group announced on August 4, 2015 that it will invest more than 1 billion yuan in robot applications in the next three years. It also announced the establishment of two joint ventures with Japan's Yaskawa Electric to develop industrial robots and service robots respectively. This year, the company once again acquired 17.8% of the equity of Anhui Eft Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. to consolidate its layout in the field of industrial robots through equity participation.
  
  Not only China, but also global giants are currently intensively deploying in the field of robotics. The Swiss Pictet Asset Management Company manages 103.5 billion euros in assets. The company predicts that in the next 10 years, the development rate of the global robot industry will reach four times the world economic growth rate.
  
  Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Europe are the global industrial robot market traditions. Fanuc, Yaskawa Electric, ABB, and KUKA, known as the "four major families" of industrial robots, belong to Japan, Switzerland, and Germany. However, the global market competition pattern continues to change, and the market share of the "four major families" has dropped from 60% before 2013 to about 50% in 2014. The rise of Chinese robotics companies has caused the volume and price of the "four major families" to drop.
  
  Compared with foreign countries, my country's industrial robot industry started late, but China's industrial robot industry has broad development prospects. Rising labor prices and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry urgently require "machine replacement"; the government supports the robot industry and continues to introduce policies to support domestic robot companies. development; with technological breakthroughs in core components, the cost of domestic robots is expected to drop significantly. "Made in China 2025" opens up vast space for growth for the robotics industry.
  
  Cinda Securities believes that enterprises’ urgent need for “machine replacement” and the government’s continued support for the robot industry have created favorable external conditions for industrial development. Domestic robot body manufacturers, system integrators and parts suppliers have made technological progress. and scale expansion have consolidated the industrial foundation. Based on the comprehensive development status of the upstream and downstream industries, the key recommended targets include Herenger, Jinzi Tianzheng, Nanjing Panda, and Eston.
  
  Huajin Securities pointed out that the current CNC rate of domestic metal forming machine tools is only 10%+, and the company's CNC system and electro-hydraulic servo system business still have certain room for development.
  
  3D printing technology
  
  3D printing has been very popular in the capital market in recent years. It belongs to the concept of Industry 4.0 and is also the future development direction of high-end manufacturing.
  
  3D printing technology is moving from fantasy to reality step by step. In recent years, 3D printing has entered people's attention in China at a rapid pace. Its wide application has given rise to endless associations with its future market space, and it is even hailed as an emerging technology leading the third industrial revolution. Especially in China, more and more companies are actively planning to enter the 3D printing industry, eager to get a piece of the pie.
  
  In 2014, the global 3D printing market size was US$3.8 billion, including printers, materials and related services. Bank of China International Securities predicts that it will reach US$16.2 billion by 2018, showing an average annual high growth rate of 40-50%. Among them, China's 3D printers and related The material market size will grow from the current US$75 million to US$1.2 billion in 2018, showing explosive growth, and its share of the global market will increase to 7.4% by 2018.
  
  Currently, American and European companies lead the global 3D printing industry. my country's 3D printing started later than Europe and the United States, and there are gaps in both technology and marketing. But my country’s 3D printing has a larger potential consumer market in the world. In the medium to long term, China will surely surpass the United States and become the world's largest 3D printing market.
  
  Huarong Securities believes that the median annual compound growth rate of China's 3D printing market size from 2014 to 2020 is around 40%, with a high probability of between 35% and 45%. That is, by 2020, China's 3D printing market size is likely to be between Between 28.69 billion yuan and 44.05 billion yuan.
  
  Judging from the application fields of 3D printing in the future, it is very broad, especially industrial-level applications, such as the application expansion in high-end manufacturing fields such as aerospace, industrial manufacturing, medical care and equipment.
  
  Medical applications in the biological field will be one of the important development directions of 3D printing industrial applications. According to the characteristics and reality of 3D industrial-grade printer applications, medical care can effectively solve patients' disease problems. From in vitro models to in vivo implants, from orthopedics, dentistry to internal organs, the biological activity of 3D printing medical applications is gradually increasing.
  
  In the field of aerospace, the US military has listed 3D printing drones as a key exploratory experiment project in 2017. The US military has embarked on many major 3D printing projects in the past few years. For example, the Air Force has signed large contracts worth over 100 million US dollars with SpaceX and Orbital ATK to develop 3D printed rocket engines. The Navy has begun to deploy metal 3D printers on ships and 3D print small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAS), etc. According to their recent announcement, UAS will be added to the 2017 Army Exploratory Warrior Experiment (AEWE).
  
  Huarong Securities stated that at present, the 3D printing business of listed companies has not yet accounted for the main source of revenue and profits, and the degree of participation of each company also varies. However, in the long term, the 3D printing business may become one of the important businesses of listed companies. After preliminary screening, the concept stocks recommended to focus on include Jubilee Technology, Guangyunda, Jinyun Laser, AVIC Heavy Machinery, Han's Laser, Robotics, Haiyuan Machinery and Jiangnan Jiajie.
  
  High-end CNC machine tools
  
  In "Made in China 2025", industry segments including high-end CNC machine tools are placed in a very important position and are considered to be another sub-theme worthy of focus within the theme of Made in China.
  
  Machine tools, as one of the most important equipment in industrial equipment processing and manufacturing, are constantly moving towards intelligence. CNC machine tools have pioneered the integration of precision manufacturing technology and related technologies, computer software and hardware technology, and are compatible with network technology, and have started the development of human intelligent production tools. CNC machine tools are the main work machines in the equipment manufacturing industry.
  
  Some analysts pointed out that my country is the world's largest machine tool consumer and the world's largest importer. However, there is still a big gap between my country's CNC machine tools and foreign countries in terms of design, materials, technology, and parts processing. Therefore, the production capacity of domestic mid-to-high-end CNC machine tools is very low, and a large amount of CNC machine tool equipment still needs to be imported from abroad every year. At present, the average level of CNC production rate of developed CNC machine tools is above 70%, and the CNC rate of output value is around 80-90%. Although the output CNC rate of my country's machine tool industry is increasing year by year, the overall CNC rate is still low. Therefore, the development of CNC machine tools in my country still has great potential. In the future, the development trend of machine tools will gradually develop towards automation, intelligence and green.
  
  Guosen Securities analyst Zhu Junchun said that CNC machine tools are located at the upper end of the entire manufacturing industry chain, and downstream industries mainly include the automotive industry, national defense industry, aerospace, and electronic information industries. In 2014, the domestic machine tool industry recovered, and the high-end trend was very significant (proportion of CNC). Globally, Germany, Germany and Japan are still the main force in high-end CNC machine tools. In recent years, the State Council and various ministries and commissions have proposed policies related to high-end CNC machine tools basically every year. During the critical period of China's manufacturing transformation, it has been placed at a new strategic level.
  
  With Industry 4.0 and Made in China 2025 concepts expected to gain market attention again, investment opportunities for listed companies in the field of intelligent machine tools and high-end CNC machine tools have once again attracted the expectations of market participants. From the perspective of the capital market, wind information statistics show that there are currently 14 listed companies in the secondary industry of Shenyin & Wanguo's "machine tool tools" in the A-share market. Judging from the closing price on March 22, it closed at 51.7 yuan. Eston is a company with a higher share price in this sector, and most listed companies in the industry are concentrated in the range of 10 yuan to 20 yuan. Since March, the listed companies in the machine tool tool category have experienced a general rise in stock prices. Statistics show that as of the close of March 22, machine tools, East China CNC, Huazhong CNC, Qinghai Huading, Eston, Nantong Forging, Ningbo Jinda 7 The cumulative share price increase of each company in March exceeded 20%, and the share price increase of all listed companies in the industry in March exceeded 10%. "We are optimistic about the high-end CNC trend of the machine tool industry and the expectations for the reform of state-owned enterprises, and are even more optimistic about the explosive power of the transformation business of machine tool companies." Zhu Junchun proposed to seize investment opportunities in intelligent machine tools from two directions: 1. Mainly engage in the machine tool industry and use its own industrial advantages to Advance to high-end, and also have the concept of state-owned enterprise reform, and are optimistic about Shenyang Machine Tool; 2. Stabilize the main business while expanding into emerging fields, and are optimistic about Yawei Co., Ltd., Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Rifa Precision Machinery.
  
  Additional: Looking at the big opportunities for entrepreneurship in the next few years from the supply and demand side,
  
  people who make early investments are actually closest to entrepreneurs, because what entrepreneurs think about all day long is exactly what investors in early-stage projects look at every day. : Where is the next big direction?
  
  After last year’s capital winter, O2O and C2C experienced a bloodbath. There will be another wave this year, and this bloodbath is beginning. However, after the bloodbath, new seedlings will definitely emerge. So what is the direction we think we have opportunities for in the next five years?
  
  A set of data may illustrate the problem. Under the raging wave of innovation and mass entrepreneurship, the general trend is very obvious. From 2011 to 2015, early investment in TMT showed a spurt of growth in both quantity and amount. According to public data, since 2015, there have been 2,470 domestically disclosed primary market financing events and 1,062 foreign publicly disclosed primary market financing events.
  
  However, about 81% of the entrepreneurial projects that have received investment in China are concentrated in the A round and before the A round; the United States is relatively balanced: seed rounds and angel rounds account for about 50%, and the proportions of B, C, and D rounds are relatively even. What does this mean? Among the early-stage projects that account for about 81% of the total, only 1 out of about 8 projects can obtain Series B investment. This means that the difficulty of financing from Series A onwards increases exponentially.
  
  So, we did see the so-called ice and fire in the venture capital market last year. What is hot is the field of early-stage project investment: seed rounds, angel rounds, and even A rounds are relatively easy. In the first half of last year, I often encountered this situation: "Mr. Huang, if you can't give us a final reply this weekend, we may have to sign with another company next Monday. So, usually before next Monday, I will pick up the contract When I get the call, Mr. Huang, we have already signed and we will consider it in the next round." However, a big change happened in the second half of the year: "Mr. Huang, if you can't reply to us this weekend, we will sign with another company next Monday. I will say We really haven’t thought it through yet. Two months later, I received a call, Mr. Huang, we can talk again, the last investor let me go.” This situation was particularly common in the second half of last year.
  
  In the first half of last year, the capital market was overheated in the field of TMT venture capital, and an excessive bubble situation occurred. However, starting from the second half of last year, some large funds began to adjust their investment strategies, no longer investing in Series A and Series B projects, returning to their previous main battlefield, and began to return to a rational state.
  
  Winter is coming, and spring is not far away. I want to tell entrepreneurs a secret to give everyone a little confidence. The secret is that despite experiencing the so-called capital winter, the entire VC market is facing a shortage of underlying assets.
  
  The most obvious example is that mainstream funds are busy acquiring shares of privatized companies in the US stock market. This shows from one dimension that there is a serious shortage of good domestic projects. In 2000, there were no more than 20 private equity funds in China. Now there are close to 7,000 or 8,000. There is a huge supply of funds, but there are very few good projects on the demand side. The shortage of targets is a serious problem we will face this year and in the next few years. challenge. In other words, if your project is reliable, more VCs will pursue you than in the past, and this trend will continue in the next few years.
  
  What is a big entrepreneurial opportunity? In fact, it is a huge existing problem in society that currently has no good solution. For entrepreneurs, it is a place where entrepreneurs face huge opportunities. If you can use new technologies and new business models to solve existing problems well, then I think you will stand out.
  
  Two key words for Chinese companies in the next five years
  
  1. Keyword 1: “Improving efficiency”
  
  Someone asked me: Last year O2O was too popular, but a lot of them died this year. Is there something wrong with the O2O model? I thought about it. The way is to put aside all concepts and look at the core essence of a thing. In other words, is what you are doing valuable, and has it improved the efficiency of the original industry?
  
  Looking at the successful Internet companies in the past fifteen years, all their businesses revolve around improving efficiency. What is the value of Tencent? It improves the efficiency of communication between people; the value of Baidu is that it improves the efficiency of people's access to information.
  
  2. Keyword 2: "Consumption Upgrading"
  
  After China's reform and opening up, the emerging middle class is increasing day by day. Having solved the problems of availability and affordability, everyone should pursue better products and better services as a matter of course. This is what investment circles often call consumption upgrade.
  
  To support my point of view with examples, Meituan’s strength lies in improving efficiency, while Dianping’s strength lies in upgrading consumption. When people in first-tier cities have already solved the problem of food and clothing, finding a restaurant with a better experience has become popular. This is something Meituan can hardly provide, but Dianping can.
  
  But, looking back, why do Meituan and Dianping need to merge? Meituan has done so by improving efficiency. Meituan has an efficient IT system that manages thousands of ground troops spread across cities across the country, such as , in terms of movie ticket purchasing, Meituan has greatly improved the efficiency of ticket purchasing.
  
  In the future of China, those born in the 1990s and 1995s will become the main consumers. If entrepreneurs cannot well grasp the psychology of this group of users, then it may be difficult for you to create a product that can affect the public.
  
  Future Entrepreneurship Opportunities
  
  Entrepreneurs and investors do nothing more than one thing: discover problems that exist in society and areas that can be improved. I believe that we will have two major opportunities in the TMT field in the next five years:
  
  Opportunity 1: On the demand side, the consumption upgrade of the middle class brought about by technological innovation has opportunities in meeting the consumption upgrade needs of the middle class;
  
  Opportunity 2: On the supply side, in addition to investing in the Internet and mobile Internet, Mingshi Capital began to deploy Industry 4.0, artificial intelligence, and enterprise-level services two years ago. These directions can help Chinese manufacturing companies improve production efficiency.
  
  In fact, in the context of consumption upgrading, consumers will choose to vote with their feet. China has overcapacity problems in the low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing sector. For example, China produces 200 million rice cookers every year, but only sells more than 40 million units. But many Chinese people like to go to Japan to buy electrical appliances. They buy 30,000 to 40,000 rice cookers in Japan. Although the difference in quantity is huge, in fact, the price of a rice cooker in Japan is seven to eight times or even higher than that in China. The mainstream of future consumption will be those born in the 1990s and 1995s. Their demand is no longer cheap, but what they value is the quality added value behind the product. If you are still looking at the diaosi crowd when making products, your project will be easily shuffled.
  
  I personally believe that on the demand side, the consumption upgrade of the middle class is a greater opportunity. In 2015, China surpassed Japan and became the second largest middle class in the world, with a population of 109 million. If China's economy does not encounter huge problems in the future, in about five to ten years, this number will increase by about 200 million. For the post-90s and post-95s generation, the main consumers, what is the concept of 200 million? It is equivalent to ours The middle class has increased the size of the entire U.S. population.
  
  Therefore, whoever can seize the real emerging consumer groups may be the successful company that can seize the next wave of trends. In other words, if Chinese companies cannot catch it, foreign companies will catch it, and this is happening now.
  
  Personalization, quality, participation and advertising-guided consumption are the main characteristics of emerging consumers. Take Xiaohongshu as an example: among its users, more than 60% of core buyers are born in the 1990s or even after 1995, and they pay more attention to quality than price. By extension, what kind of company will be a good company in the future? My answer is a company that can control pricing power based on the brand's positioning and influence in the minds of users and the gap between its competitors, such as Apple.
  
  It is people who really run the model.
  
  So, is it possible to do business well if you are optimistic about industry trends? My opinion is that this only completes 10% of the total work, because the earlier the investment, the more important the players are here. The more obvious it is.
  
  It’s people who really bring out the pattern. We would rather invest in a good team to do second-rate or third-rate things than to invest in a second-rate team to do things. Because if a second-rate team does a project, there will be several teams competing with you in the market, and you will have no chance of winning. Frankly speaking, this is the standard for our team selection, and I believe that all investment institutions should choose this way.
  
  Therefore, when dealing with investors, I suggest not to spend too much time talking about the general trends of the industry and the opportunities of your project. If he does not know these, then he is probably not a professional investor. Because before he meets you: , he has already researched it; second, he has met at least five teams. Then, his focus will naturally fall on: why you and not others can get investment. Focus on explaining why it’s you, and your chances of getting investment will be much greater. Try to convince yourself in front of the mirror and see clearly where your strengths are, which may be much more important than blindly hitting the road.
  
  I have been working in the Internet industry for nearly 20 years, and I have a greater experience: everything can be calculated, including economic models, financial models, market development, user numbers, etc. What cannot be calculated is the growth potential of the founder.